Published October 4, 2026 in Market Update

Primary market still moves faster than the national inventory story

By Michael McGivern

Real estate, Primary market

The National Association of Realtors says U.S. supply hit 4.9 months, the highest in over ten years. In this market, the Real Estate Data Aggregator counted 1,112 homes for sale in the three months ending July 31, 2026. That gap is the whole story. More supply is showing up nationally, but here, sellers still hold the shorter end of a very short stick.*

Here is the thing nobody explains: pending sales above available homes means buyers are still lined up faster than sellers are arriving. The Real Estate Data Aggregator counted 1,838 pending sales against 1,112 homes for sale. Demand outruns supply. That is what keeps prices from sliding.

What the national number actually means here

The National Association of Realtors put U.S. supply at 4.9 months. A balanced market is usually six months. So even the national number is not a buyer's paradise. Here, most ZIP codes sit between 1.1 and 3.4 months. That is a different world entirely.

Rates crossed 7% again. Here is why that matters.

Freddie Mac put the 30-year fixed rate at 7.28% as of October 1, 2026. Realtor.com reported rates crossed 7% in late September for the first time since January 2025. Higher rates slow buyers down. They do not stop them here, but they do explain why some ZIP codes are taking a few more days.

Speed: most homes still move in under three weeks

The Real Estate Data Aggregator shows median days on market ranging from 14 days in ZIP 55105 to 43 days in ZIP 55435. Most ZIP codes sit between 14 and 23 days. Not every home sold fast, but the middle of this market moves quickly. That is the number that tells sellers what to expect.

Where prices moved and where they dipped

Prices are not moving in one direction. The Real Estate Data Aggregator shows ZIP 55435 down 21.3% and ZIP 55425 down 9.6%, while ZIP 55436 is up 12.8% and ZIP 55416 is up 12.1%. A market-wide average would hide all of that. Your street is its own story.

Above-list sales: still common, a little less so

In ZIP 55420, the Real Estate Data Aggregator found 57.5% of homes sold above list price. In ZIP 55435, only 16.7% did. Prices slipping and fewer above-list sales in some ZIP codes is a small, honest admission: more supply is giving some buyers a little room. Not a lot. Just a little.

The Federal Housing Finance Agency sees the same thing nationally

The Federal Housing Finance Agency reported U.S. house prices rose 2.1% year over year between the second quarter of 2025 and the second quarter of 2026. Quarter over quarter, prices rose 0.3%. Slow and steady nationally. This market's ZIP-by-ZIP swings are wider than that, in both directions.

One street can read very differently from the ZIP code around it. The numbers above cover whole ZIP codes. Your block may be faster, slower, higher or lower. That is the part a spreadsheet cannot tell you.