Published October 11, 2026 in Market Update

One part of Primary market got looser, while another stayed fierce

By Michael McGivern

Real estate, Primary market

The single fact that changes your plan: not every ZIP code in this market is the same market. The Real Estate Data Aggregator counted 1,818 homes sold across the Primary market in the three months ending August 31, 2026. That is up 6.8% from a year before. Sounds steady. But ZIP 55425 had 5.9 months of supply and homes sat for 30 days. ZIP 55431 had 1.1 months of supply and homes moved in 15 days. Same market. Very different reality.

Here is why months of supply matters. It tells you how long the current stock of homes would last if nothing new came on. Six months is roughly balanced. Below two, sellers hold most of the cards. Above four, buyers have room to push back. That gap between 5.9 and 1.1 is not a rounding error. It is a different conversation about price.

The loose end: ZIP 55425

The Real Estate Data Aggregator counted only 11 homes sold in ZIP 55425 in the three months ending August 31, 2026. That is down 38.9% from a year before. Homes for sale rose 40% over the same stretch. Pending sales fell 40%. The median sale price slipped to $335,000, down 0.9%. Homes averaged 30 days on market, 8 days longer than last year. Only 27.3% sold above list price, down 22.7 points from a year ago. That last number is the one to sit with. When fewer than 3 in 10 homes beat their asking price, pricing sharp from the start is not optional.

The tight end: ZIP 55431

ZIP 55431 is a different story. The Real Estate Data Aggregator counted 72 homes sold there in the three months ending August 31, 2026. Months of supply sat at 1.1, down slightly from a year before. Homes spent a median of 15 days on market, unchanged from last year. More than half, 51.4%, sold above list price. And 65.3% went under contract within two weeks of listing. That last number tells you buyers are not waiting around to see what else comes up.

How the other ZIPs line up

Most of the Primary market sits between those two poles. The Real Estate Data Aggregator shows ZIP 55345 at 1.8 months of supply and 15 days on market, with 61.2% of homes going under contract within two weeks. ZIP 55422 had 1.3 months and 56.6% under contract in two weeks. ZIP 55420 had 1.8 months and 66.7% under contract in two weeks, the highest rate in the market. ZIP 55435 had 3.6 months, homes averaged 26 days, and only 18.6% sold above list. ZIP 55405 had 3.1 months and just 29.6% sold above list, down 13 points from a year ago.

The wider picture: rates and listings

Realtor.com reported that active listings nationally are up 6.7% from a year ago, the fastest pace since February. That matches what the Real Estate Data Aggregator found here: homes for sale across the Primary market rose 13.3% year over year to 1,147. More supply is good news for buyers. It is a reason sellers need to price carefully. Freddie Mac put the average 30-year fixed rate at 7.40% as of October 8, 2026. That rate is real and it is in buyers' heads when they make offers.

The National Association of Realtors put national months of supply at 4.9, the highest in over ten years. That is nationally. The Primary market as a whole is tighter than that. But ZIP 55425 at 5.9 months is already above the national figure. That is worth knowing if you own there.

What this means, ZIP by ZIP

In the loose ZIPs, 55425, 55435 and 55405, more homes are competing for fewer buyers. Pricing and presentation matter more than they did a year ago. Patience is part of the plan. In the tight ZIPs, 55431, 55345, 55420 and 55422, buyers are still moving fast. The Real Estate Data Aggregator shows 65.3% of homes in 55431 and 66.7% in 55420 went under contract within two weeks. Sellers there still have leverage, though not quite as much as last year.

One more thing nobody usually says: the numbers above cover a whole ZIP code. One street, one block, one price range can read very differently from the ZIP total. A home priced at $675,000 in a ZIP where the median is $335,000 is in a different conversation entirely. Text me your address and I will tell you which side of this market your home actually sits on.