Published October 18, 2026 in Market Update

More homes hit the market in Primary market, but buyers did not keep up

By Michael McGivern

Real estate, Primary market

Here is the one thing every homeowner in Primary market should know right now: supply grew faster than demand. The Real Estate Data Aggregator counted 1,938 new listings across Primary market in the three months ending August 31, 2026, up 9.6% from the same months a year before. Pending sales, meanwhile, fell 0.5% to 1,654. More homes chasing roughly the same number of buyers. Pricing matters more when that happens.

That gap is not a crisis. It is a shift. For years, buyers had almost no time to think. Now they do. Realtor.com reported for-sale listings growing nearly 7% year over year nationwide for the week ending October 10, 2026. Primary market's 9.6% new-listing jump ran a little ahead of that national pace.

What the rate environment is doing to buyers

Freddie Mac put the average 30-year fixed rate at 7.40% as of October 15, 2026. The 15-year averaged 6.71%. Those numbers explain a lot about why pending sales are not keeping up with new listings. The National Association of Realtors counted 3.99 million existing-home sales nationally in September 2026. That is not a busy market. Buyers have options and they are taking their time.

How each ZIP code read the same story differently

The market-wide numbers are real, but they smooth over some sharp differences. A few ZIPs added listings faster than almost anywhere else. Others barely moved. The table below shows new listings and the change from a year before, so you can see where supply jumped most.

ZIP 55343 saw homes for sale jump 50.8% year over year, the Real Estate Data Aggregator counted 89 homes for sale there in the three months ending August 31, 2026. ZIP 55420 was up 46.4%. ZIP 55423 was up 39.3%. Those are meaningful shifts. A buyer in those ZIPs has far more to compare than they did a year ago.

Where sellers still held the upper hand

Not every ZIP softened. ZIP 55420 had a median of 14 days on market and 66.7% of homes going under contract within two weeks of listing, according to the Real Estate Data Aggregator. ZIP 55431 sat at 15 days on market with 65.3% under contract inside two weeks. ZIP 55437 saw 61.1% of homes go under contract within two weeks, up 15.5 points from a year before. Those are tight pockets inside a market that is broadly loosening.

Where prices moved, and where they did not

ZIP 55438 posted the biggest price gain the Real Estate Data Aggregator recorded: a median sale price of $455,000, up 30.2% from a year before. ZIP 55436 came in at $760,000, up 10.6%. ZIP 55105 reached $520,000, up 6.1%. On the other side, ZIP 55435 fell to $279,900, down 18.4%. ZIP 55424 dropped to $1,442,500, down 7.8%. ZIP 55343 slipped to $352,500, down 6.6%. The same market, very different outcomes.

Above-list sales: still happening, but less often

Across most of Primary market, the share of homes selling above list price fell from a year before. ZIP 55405 dropped 13 points to 29.6%. ZIP 55424 dropped 10.2 points to 23.1%. ZIP 55425 dropped 22.7 points to 27.3%. A few ZIPs bucked that. ZIP 55439 gained 14.1 points to reach 40%. ZIP 55437 gained 6.4 points to 47%. ZIP 55426 gained 7.9 points to 50%. The Real Estate Data Aggregator tracked all of these for the three months ending August 31, 2026.

What this means if you own a home here

When buyers had almost no inventory, a seller could price high and still get offers. That window is narrower now. The Real Estate Data Aggregator counted 1,147 homes for sale across Primary market in the three months ending August 31, 2026, up 13.3% from a year before. Buyers have more to compare. A price that would have drawn a bidding war in 2025 may just sit in 2026. The homes selling fast are still selling fast. The homes priced wrong are taking longer.

ZIP 55425 is the clearest example. The Real Estate Data Aggregator counted 5.9 months of supply there, up 3.3 months from a year before. Median days on market hit 30. Pending sales fell 40%. That is a different market than ZIP 55431, which had 1.1 months of supply and a median of 15 days on market in the same period.

These numbers cover the three months ending August 31, 2026. One street can read very differently from the whole ZIP code. If you want to know what the data says about your specific address, text me.